Historically, Bitcoin’s largest moves tend to occur after breaking its previous cycle high. This is when price enters price discovery mode, with no historical resistance to hold it back.
Where the top might be depends on several factors:
1. Market Cycles: Previous bull cycles saw BTC topping out at approximately 20x its prior cycle high. If a similar ratio applies, BTC could theoretically target ~$400K, though diminishing returns suggest a more conservative estimate of $150K-$250K.
2. Institutional Adoption: With ETFs, increased spot demand, and global macro adoption, institutional participation could push the price beyond traditional cycle patterns.
3. Global Macro: Interest rates, inflation, and other macro factors will likely play a significant role in defining BTC’s trajectory.
Bottom Line: A logical target lies between $150K-$250K, with outlier scenarios possibly exceeding those levels if adoption accelerates further. Let the trend and price action guide the way. Where do you think it tops?