Bitcoin price in EUR and BTC-EUR price history chart

Over the last few days, numerous assets have been green. Many expect a central bank pivot in the near term because of recent currency volatility. That much about sentiment.

Since the beginning of the year, I've been mostly flat, which has been the correct decision thus far. I don't have any new information questioning my stance of cautiousness.

The most brutal rallies occur during bear markets.

$BTC stays highly correlated to equities, which are coming off of fresh yearly lows. Also not going to chase $PAXG, which is already up considerably.

All in all, I'm still happy being sidelined, watching the turmoil unfold.

Being cautious with this small pump... ⚠️

Only if $BTC can break through the resistance of 24K USD, then we will fully enter the market again, otherwise we stay safe in this bearmarket.

Bottom price remains between 12K and 16K USD.

3/5

Bitcoin is holding well and started printing a volatility squeeze on multiple timeframes meaning that a big move is around the corner. That being said, we are still waiting for a hint on the direction of the move and the stock market open before making any decisions🤔 $BTC

4/5

We are also at a decision point when it comes to the trendline that is going back to the $BTC top at 69k. We will either break above or dump to new lows🤔 Again too early to say so we will wait in stablecoins for a little longer. So far it looks like we will have a fake move up and then a strong dump👀

5/5

What is bullish tho, is the fact that $BTC accumulation level reached 7-years high👀 Over 6-month-old Bitcoins now take 74% of the realized cap. It was 70%, and 77% at the last bottoms in 2019, and 2015 respectively.

Imagine you buy Bitcoins and do nothing over six months. Those are true hodlers!😉 The number of those is going up and so will the price... eventually😁

$BTC is still moving sideways but volatility is decreasing. A big move is coming and unfortunately we have to assume that the trend will continue and the move will be to the downside.

1/3

Morning update:

After Credit Suisse, now there are rumors that Deutsche Bank is also in big trouble and on a brick of collapse. In the morning, the CDS (credit default swap) price spiked to 157 EUR as traders are betting on their collapse👀 Together with Credit Suisse, they manage $2,7 trillion so this could be the 2022 “Lehman” moment.  Not looking good but this could also be bullish for $BTC as it cannot go bankrupt🤔

2/3

Meanwhile, bulls failed to defend Apple's $150 support as well as the SPX June low meaning that stocks are now likely headed lower📉 It will be interesting to see the stock market open and how $BTC will react to it. Last week, it was holding extremely well compared to the stock market, but its too early to call for decoupling👀

Things starting to get very ugly... 🔴📉 $BTC

The only good news is that investors from the last bullrun in 2021 are capitulating and selling with a loss of 50%. This type of capitulation takes usually place in the lasts month of a bearmarket. There is always light at the end of the tunnel... Patience will be rewarded...

Last few days we have seen stock market dropping hard. Since 19th of September SP500 dropped 8%. On the other hand, $BTC actually didn't lose any value. Of course it's hard to say, if this is so called decoupling, but it looks good. Exchange reserves are dropping and are actually at all time low 👀

Hard to say if the worst is behind us, but we should be buying when things look bad. It looks like good accumulating phase. Crypto twitter looks dead, exchange volume is really low, some coins are down 95% although they are building. Many people were hyped when those coins were at ATH, but they are too afraid to buy now.

I'll try to accumulate $LINK over this period. Also waiting for $SYS to become available on iconomi. SYS is buliding on zksync. They should deliver mainnet in a month, so this will be a big thing. #zkrollup narrative will change $ETH. I'm eying a project (well, actually heavily invested) that builds on zksync. MUTE - It's low cap coin, so not yet available on Iconomi. Maybe one day it'll be :)

Good luck to all. Bear market will end eventually. Just position yourself wisely. I'll do my best.