Diversitas is an actively managed crypto strategy with a focus on Bitcoin and DeFi.
Sell/Exit cost (per transaction)0.50%
1/5
Morning update:
Bitcoin is finally showing some signs of decoupling but unfortunately at a time when the stock market is pumping. The real test will for $BTC will come next week when we expect the stocks to face a reality check after Powell comes out more hawkish than ever before👀 The warning signs are there but the market continues to ignore them. Additional evidence on why we do not believe this rally is sustainable in today’s update👇
2/5
Something the bulls are ignoring is the fact that relative to bonds, stocks haven't been this expensive in more than a decade. Furthermore, SPX is currently trading for around 18 times 2023 earnings estimates. This level served as a top in the S&P 500 during the August and December peaks. Historically, the only times that the index traded above 18 times forward earnings were from 1997 until 2001 and late 2019 until the winter of 2022, which were undoubtedly bubble periods🤔👀
3/5
Even when comparing the SPX to interest rates, it is not cheap. We are currently seeing the narrowest spread between earnings yield and 10-year rate since 2007. This is another matrix showing us that the SPX is currently very expensive👀
4/5
Looking at the FED’s reserve balance and the SPX, we can also see that the spread between the two is growing. This does not look good and is screaming for correction. As already mentioned, this is likely the last rally before they pull the rug. SPX broke the resistance, got everyone excited, and now we will witness the grand finale of this bear market. Sounds like a plan🤔
5/5
On top of all the alarming evidence mentioned above, the projected growth is slowing down, the FED will likely tighten further and inflation is expected to rebound. It sounds like a perfect combo for a catastrophe📉
Once the stocks start to drop bankers will be like:
"We got the retail excited, they already thought we were in a bull market and then we dumped on them😆"
1/7
Morning update:
Yesterday, the stock market opened down big time but managed to erase the losses by the end of the trading day. Very dangerous behavior ahead of the core PCI and FOMC meeting🤦♂️
Powell is watching every single move and will need to come out even more hawkish😅
@CryptoHelper we made the mistake of fully exiting too early in the rally and are now waiting for a better entry. Once things start to look more bullish we plan 100% exposure with partial exits when things begin to look overheated.
Great macro thanks 👍
2/7
Speaking about inflation, gasoline prices continue to move higher🚀 Now up 8,5% in January👀
Inflation in the US is coming back strong...
@Petr the prices will likely come back up👀
Interesting. In Czech we have gasoline for around 1.70 usd per litre int his moment.
3/7
As a result of all the price increases, the Clevland FED CPI estimates continue to move higher📈 It will be interesting to see what will Powell do next week. Our bet is a 50bps hike or more🤔
@KeeneyeHabita everyone seems so confident in 25bps😂not gonna happen...
It is already known that it will be 0,25 BPS 🤦🏻♂️
4/7
Meanwhile, big tech companies continue to lay off thousands of workers. A few hours ago, IBM announced that it will lay off 3,900 employees as it misses annual cash targets👀
5/7
Lam Research is also about to lay off 7% of its staff. Do you now see the patterns we started to talk about over a month ago? 🤔
@Diversitas I noticed you have 3 rules active. What rules do you have activated?
Of topic, I noticed that Iconomi maybe will develop the possibility for copiers to activate their own rules in a strategy. I think that is a positive development.