Diversitas

1/4

Morning update:

Things played out as expected, the FED raised rates by 25bps and caused a lot of volatility in the markets. Based on the FED’s projections, there will be no cuts this year so it looks like they will continue to hike until something much bigger blows up👀 At this point, this actually may be the only way to get inflation down📉

The second option is that they simply want to blow up the financial system to implement the CBDC’s. This has been one of the conspiracy theories that is becoming more and more realistic🤔

2/4

Secondly, here is a potential scenario for the coming months👇

- Fed raises rates 1 more time in May.

- Something bigger breaks. 

- Fed pauses rates.

- People begin losing jobs.

- Unemployment shoots up to 5-10%.

- Markets drop into recession. 

- Fed begins cutting rates.

- Fed turns on money printer (QE).

- Gov bails out big banks.

- Markets finally bottom.

- Inflation goes near 2%.

- Interest rates near 0-2%.

- Bull market begins in 2024.

Keep in mind that this is a playbook for the stock market. Hard to say how Bitcoin will react to all this mess but we will soon find out🤔

3/4

That being said, Bitcoin dumped all the way down to $26,500 but bounced hard just a few hours later. For now, we are safe but we will continue to monitor the price action👀

One of the reasons why $BTC went down may also be the fact that Coinbase received a Wells notice. They are already fighting back and have posted a great blog post explaining the situation. If something it is now clear that the US feels threatened by crypto and will continue to fight it. They likely see Bitcoin as an alternative to its collapsing banking system and will try to fight it🤔

https://www.coinbase.com/blog/we-asked-the-sec-for-reasonable-crypto-rules-for-americans-we-got-legal

4/4

For us, the plan is simple, we will follow our algos and exit if we get more bearish signs. For now, we keep riding the crypto waves🌊$BTC

1/2

Morning update:

Apart from Russia announcing that they will start to use Chinese yuan instead of US dollars to settle trade with Asia, Africa, and Latin America not much happened over the past 24 hours.

This is a huge announcement though as it may have many consequences. The US won’t accept this easily, so watching how things play out will be interesting👀

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-turns-to-chinas-yuan-in-effort-to-ditch-the-dollar-a8111457

2/2

That being said, the dollar moved down on the news which is good for BTC and crypto. That being said, the real test will be today at the FOMC meeting. Volatility is guaranteed, the only question that remains is how will BTC react to the news. Many expect a pause or even a cut while we still think they should continue to hike if they want to get inflation down🤔

Hard to predict what is gonna happen so let's simply grab a popcorn and enjoy the clown show👀

1/4

Morning update:

The banking crisis around the world continues. Yesterday UBS was down 8% on the news that they bought Credit Suisse. In the US, First Republic Bank continues to sink although the big banks have injected 30 billion of capital into the bank. The stock is now down over 90% and it looks like the bank may soon collapse or need more money to survive👀

2/4

As a result, the US started to study ways to guarantee all bank deposits if the crisis expands. This shows how bad the situation is. As mentioned a few days ago, there are rumors that almost 200 banks could be on a brick of collapse. Crazy😱

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/us-studies-ways-to-guarantee-all-bank-deposits-if-crisis-expands#xj4y7vzkg

3/4

For now, Bitcoin is holding well but the true test will likely be the FOMC meeting. Generally speaking, we do believe the dollar will take a hit over the coming weeks and this should cause the continuation of the rally. Furthermore, if the US will be saving the banks, they will need to inject billions if not trillions of dollars into the system and this should be additional fuel🔥$BTC

4/4

Lastly, the gold is moving up as well so we do believe that we are well-positioned for the week. Altcoins are bleeding for now so we remain focused mostly on $BTC and $PAXG ✅