Diversitas

1. Market Overview

Following last week's market-wide shakeout, the S&P 500 just posted its best week of 2024, gaining 4.0%. Bitcoin mirrored this move, showing extremely bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. On the weekly chart, $BTC printed a strong reversal candle. This week’s close above this level would confirm a promising setup✅

Moreover, MicroStrategy has purchased $1.1 billion worth of Bitcoin and is expected to deploy an additional $900 million in the coming days/weeks. On the regulatory front, the SEC is gradually softening its stance on SAB-121, potentially allowing banks to custody Bitcoin—another major catalyst that could unlock significant buying pressure👀

2. ETF Flows

In line with the recent sentiment shift, we saw a strong inflow week for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

• $BTC ETFs Weekly Flow: +$402.9 million
• $ETH ETFs Weekly Flow: -$12.9 million

As for Ethereum ETFs, we continue to observe small but steady Grayscale outflows. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds in the coming weeks, especially if we experience the much-anticipated altseason at the start of Q4🤔

3. On-Chain Data

• Coinbase Premium: Positive✅
• Exchange Reserves: Extremely Low✅
• MVRV Ratio: 1,87 (cycle top usually above 3.7)✅
• Open Interest: Low✅
• Funding Rates: Low✅
• Fear and Greed Index: 39 (Fear)✅

A key trend we're observing is the combination of mid-term accumulation by sharks and whales, alongside decreasing levels of $BTC on exchanges. This dynamic sets a strong foundation for a potential market rally in the near future👀

4. Top Weekly News

MicroStrategy acquires 18,300 BTC

https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-acquires-18300-btc-achieves-btc-yield-of-4-qtd-17-ytd-now-holds-244800-btc 

Japan’s Metaplanet buys additional $2 million in Bitcoin

https://www.theblock.co/post/315490/japans-metaplanet-buys-additional-2-million-in-bitcoin-raising-total-holdings-to-26-million 

SEC softens stance around SAB-121

https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-softens-stance-sab-121-galaxy-research 

Gold hits record high with Fed rate cut on the horizon

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/gold-hits-record-high-fed-151000390.html 

European Central Bank cuts rates for second time in three months

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/business/european-central-bank-interest-rates.html 

Swift to test solutions interlinking fiat with various tokenized assets

https://www.theblock.co/post/316066/swift-to-test-solutions-interlinking-fiat-with-various-tokenized-assets 

Standard Chartered launches digital asset custody service in the UAE

https://www.sc.com/en/press-release/standard-chartered-launches-digital-asset-custody-service-in-the-uae/

5. Summary

The easing cycle is well underway. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates for the second time. Now, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with major U.S. banks predicting a similar move:

• JPMorgan: 50 bps rate cut
• Citigroup: 25 bps rate cut
• Bank of America: 25 bps rate cut
• Goldman Sachs: 25 bps rate cut

With interest payments on U.S. government debt up 30% from last year, the Fed has little choice but to lower rates and increase liquidity. Gold has already surged to new all-time highs in response to this shift in monetary policy. We believe Bitcoin will be next and remain extremely bullish for the coming months. Once Bitcoin breaks new highs, we expect altcoins to follow with a strong upward rally🚀