Does this crypto bear feel different from previous bear markets? Was the FTX collapse in 2022 a more brutal experience for crypto people than the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014? From a purely crypto perspective: not really! Past bears were just as savage and desperate as this one.
The dimensions did change indeed. Sam Bankman-Fried's fraud isn't just a funny aside in the annals of global finance. It's up there with Enron's and Maddoff's deeds. With the dimensions changed the enemies: bankers, regulators and monetary guardians the world over are now after crypto, the bad, and unfortunately also the good of crypto. Feels scary.
The context changed too, with a global recession looming (crypto's first!), and people as influential as the pope's doomposting in the news every day, the world now looks even scarier than it looked when the pandemic broke out back in 2020.
Shifted dimension and context lead to people asking: is this time truly different? Is this the end of crypto? Well, so far, there is nothing pointing in that direction. It's the same thing as in 2014 or 2018, with a different flavor. Unless that fundamentally changes, we will assume continuation: cycles will keep cycling, people, and the public opinion will shift from euphoria to doom and gloom and back again. One year we all die, and the next we stand on the verge of a new golden age. The pope probably reads the charts too.
The diehard survivors of this crazy market come up with the worst, but sometimes also with the healthiest recommendations: Touch grass (or snow), and if you can't get yourself to step away from the screen, take this quiet time to learn about the crazy innovations and inspiring characters that crypto still offers once we look beyond greed and the fraudsters.
In that sense: Happy holidays from MAV! See you in a hopefully more pleasant 2023.