Diversitas

1/4

Morning update:

After flirting with the trackline, the price now closed two consecutive days well below it. Now comes the moment of truth, we need to bounce by the end of the week or things could get ugly🤔

2/4

As mentioned yesterday, the bottom is usually formed when new lows are made and everyone panics. Usually, this comes in combination with bad news and we got a lot of it over the past few days. CZ sentenced, FOMC meeting, and today the first BlackRock ETF outflows. This could either be a capitulation event or the start of something bigger. We will get the answer over the coming days but what is clear is that we have seen one of the biggest and sharpest price drawdowns over the past few years👀

3/4

In our view, the FOMC meeting turned quite positive. The Federal Reserve leaved interest rates unchanged and announced that in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. In other words, they will slow down the phase of tightening which could be seen as bullish👌

4/4

Speaking about the ETFs, we yesterday saw $563 million in outflows as many holders experienced true Bitcoin volatility for the first time and panic sold.  This is a good overall market indicator and shows that true conviction is being tested. Fear and Greed index also reported fear for the first time in months. All the bottom signs are there so let’s wait a few more days before making any decisions regarding our next move. As mentioned already multiple times, Bitcoin rarely spends a lot of time below our trackline so the bounce should happen over the coming days🤔

1/4

Morning update:

Usually at this stage, when fear is high, $BTC prints a slightly lower low and then bounces📈

Upon that slightly lower low, fear spikes, retail investors panic sell, and big players/smart money buys upon the increased liquidity. Support is found.

This played out yesterday after CZ (CEO of Binance) got sentenced to 4 months in prison. He is officially the richest man ever to serve time in US federal prison.