Green Machine

It's been over 3 months since last rebalance and the big gainer has been $FTM, up 97%. $BTC and $ETH are both up about 20% since last rebalance and everything else is mostly green too apart from $RSR (down 31%). Keeping everything as it was but adding a 2% $LDO position and taking it from $RSR. 2022 was a terrible year for crypto and towards the end of the year I believe we saw a lot of people crystalizing losses which kept everything suppressed. We're off to a better start in 2023 and the major thing to watch out for this year will be ETH's Shanghai update due in March which will free up a lot of currently locked ETH. Towards the end of the year, I'd also expect hype to be building as usual for BTC's halving event due in May 2024.

Been a couple of months since last rebalance just before ETH merge. Unfortunately almost everything is down since then by about 20%. However, with inflation out of control and monetary policy everywhere being tested, it's all helping to promote crypto and the concepts of deflation, fixed supply, public ledgers etc. Rebalancing now with no changes in assets but shuffling weights around so that $BTC is largest holding followed by $ETH and $ATOM. The logic for that is that historically, BTC leads the charge out of a bear market and against ETH on long term monthly charts, it's looking like it's due a run upwards.

Making ETH the largest holding at 30%. As we build up to the merge (supposed to be happening next month) I predict demand for it will only continue to grow in anticipation of a hard fork and the 'free money' that may come with it. Several exchanges are supporting or will support ETHPOW futures and it's likely there'll be strong demand for ETH and a lot of volume next month as a result of that plus the possibility of there being some liquidity for major POW ERC20 tokens.

It's been a couple of months since last rebalance and it looks like we've found a bottom (hopefully) with BTC struggling to break below the last cycle's ATH of about $18k. Everything green over the weekend and news of a rough ETH merge date in a couple of months time has pumped ETH. Lowering BTC from 44% to 30%, allocating the difference mainly to ETH and minor changes on the rest including adding a small CRV position and removing ANKR.

Dreadful few days for crypto and this will hurt a lot of people. I removed Luna from the strategy at between $5-6 yesterday saying I felt it was in a death spiral and could go lower and that has indeed proven to be the case. After a temporary rally it now sits at 13c. The lesson is don't be afraid to cut embarrassingly large losses and don't get sucked in to believing the only way is up for any asset. Sunk cost fallacy kills people and sometimes it's better to risk selling the bottom than watching things go to zero. We hear it all the time (and ignore it all the time) but it's worth repeating - please don't invest more than you can afford to lose. And if you find yourself in a position where that advice is too late, please don't be afraid to cut losses. Today's bottom can easily turn in to tomorrow's top.

Cutting loses on Luna. In a death spiral that won't stop until some sort of plan is announced. Going to zero is possible although I do believe there'll be a rescue plan (backed by CeFi actors) at some point. What we have now is simply a bank run and rush to the exits. Getting anything out is better than nothing at all.

Another rebalance, same structure and same strategy (buying the Luna blood). UST has lost peg big time now (88c) which is a problem. However, I don't believe this is anything other than a very short term depeg caused by sheer market panic / chaos.

Almost everything down double digit % since last rebalance. No weight changes this time, just a rebalance to buy the $LUNA blood in particular. It's still the largest holding and UST is being stress tested but is still holding peg nicely and working as expected. $BTC is taking everything down with it and difficult to know when it rebounds but with inflation so high, it's still one of the most solid long term bets you can take.

Largest holding $LUNA is up 72% since last rebalance so time to take some profit and reallocate to others. Not many changes but adding a small 2% $AVAX position. Crypto has held up remarkably well despite all the bad macro news but things can of course change quickly. $LUNA still largest position and is somewhat of a small hedge against a bearish market due to the way it works.

Lots of blood since last rebalance a couple of months ago but fundamentals are better than ever. Lots of uncertainty around UST and $LUNA at the minute but doubling-down on it and allocating 25% for $LUNA. Also adding small $ROSE position.