Mountains and Valleys

A common alts selection theme in this bull market is the proliferation of tokens with very low circulating supply and very high fully diluted valuation.

The situation is a reflection of the fact that recent projects went through many rounds of private funding before they hit the public market. Via aggressive token unlock schedules, those projects are turning retail investors into exit liquidity for those who were lucky enough to get into their previous rounds. Sadly, the chance to be early in crypto has been bottled up and made available exclusively to "big money" circles by now.

A positive sign seems to be that the market started punishing some projects with particularly greedy token minting strategies. Unfortunately, almost all projects that currently get market attention (aside from meme coins) are in this low float/high valuation category, they're just on a spectrum from worse to worst.

We deal with this situation by trying to stay away from the greediest projects, by picking projects that seem to have a chance to grow into their high valuation and by trying to spot last cycle projects that have a true chance at a renaissance (like $AR).

And yes, the above situation is one of the fundamental reasons why meme coins are doing so well this cycle. The "big money" investors brought this onto themselves by only leaving scraps to the little guys.

The altcoin markets have been hard to read in this bull market so far. Alts seem to be entirely at the whim of quickly shifting narratives driven by crypto natives on social media.

This season's alt traders have a strong preference for the whimsical, making memes the strongest market segment by far. There seems to be little outside interest and readiness to do fundamental analysis on altcoins, leaving lots of good projects in the dust.

It's hard to tell whether this was just a characteristic of the early bull, or whether that's the reality that we'll be in from now on. Weird markets in weird times?

To acknowledge that we cannot really tell what the flavor of the day will be tomorrow, we are making our portfolio a bit more top heavy. Laying even more emphasis on $SOL , which has shown tremendous strength as a host for the market's meme-ishness. $SOL recently lost an important source of FUD, with the FTX estate getting locked up for 4 years.

We also added a homeopathic dose of $PEPE , simply to acknowledge that the times, they do be whimsical, whether we like it or not.

Finally a bit of a reaction after this steady and quite significant drawdown. This would be a good area for the market to turn bullish again but alas, such corrections can sometimes last longer than we wish for. We remain confident that the bull market is far from over.

Most of our fiat is back in the market now. This should more or less be it if history rhymes with past bull markets.

Very broad long liquidation event into the weekend. We are buying the dip, as we believe that the most exciting part of the bull market is still ahead of us.