Low Fees Top Fundamentals

I just wanted to say that the conditions in crypto in last 6 months are crazy.

In last few days the portfolio has been heavily impacted due to market panick because 2 US banks have failed.

Sillicon Valley bank is a bank that is a custodian of USDC and USDC has depegged from 1$ mark, this has caused for market panick.

After so hard bear cycle nobody wants to see another Terra Luna colapse.

After weekend US has announced it will save all depositors. USDC is back to it's 1$ mark.

I honestly don't know what to say. Crypto is volatile but the volatility we are experiancing in last few weeks is beyond reasonable.

Black swan events every few weeks...

Focus will be on fundamentals. We have decided we will ignore all price swings untill reasonable prices are hit.

Reason for big shift in portfolio structure:

$ATOM was one of the best L1 performers of the bear cycle in 2022 & it was our main holding. Sure we felt the pain but we outperformed overall the market. Recently we dumped $ATOM . Reasoning is simple.

$ATOM belongs to the coins that have the least correlation to $BTC & other part of crypto,.

Most L1's got hit extremely hard in bear cycle --> most suffered more than 90% loses

We are hard believers in $ETH but it has few technical disantvantages that other L1 have solved. This was the reasoning for our $ATOM pick.

Since $BTC is on rampage lately, we can see that $ATOM is slowly underperforming it, while some altcoins are having crazy runs.

$NEAR was heavily impacted due to VC & Institutions like DCG have had big positions in it & they had to liquidate assets due to bankruptcy of their subsidiary Geneis. NEAR PROTOCOL is already live with sharding, has one of highest developer activity, very strong treasury and one of the biggest support from VC Firms. Seeing it down nearly 90% from ATH is a perfect point to enter.

$RUNE is extremely complicated to explain in 1 sentence so we will summarise it.

Thorchain is a crosschain DEX agregator. It works like a liquidity blackhole for entire crypto space. Offers self custory, directly from your hardware wallet, beeing able to swap to any chain, take a loan, earn yield etc... And best part it's part of $ATOM Ecosystem. Once liquidity and high volumes return to crypto so will $RUNE's price. Recently biggest & most trusted wallet providers have implemented or have announced they are implementing $RUNE in it's backend (TrustWallet, Ledger,...)

We'll say it in a simple way: YOU WILL USE $RUNE & YOU WILL BE HAPPY WITHOUT KNOWING YOU ARE USING IT. With THORCHAIN there is no more need to CEX's like Binance, Coinbase etc... 😉

$MKR Is the 2nd biggest protocol on Ethereum and biggest decentralised stable coin project

$DOT Is a crosschain L1 protocol that fullfils our multichain thesis.

We believe some of our picks will outperform $BTC heavily in following weeks. $ATOM has lately alot of drama in governance so we have exited it due to risk reward. We believe our picks are primed for a heavy run to the upside.

Was doing research for past weeks.

Stressfull times, but I have finaly decided to make adjustements to the portfolio structure. While we remain pesimistic about macro picture we are very bullish on crosschain protocols, DeFi & undervalued L1 networks.

Research update will be posted shortly.

Main assets will be now:

$RUNE $NEAR & $MKR

Expect alot of volatility.

Risk / Reward ratio is favorable.

Fundamental & Technical analysis will be posted tomorow.

Stay tuned 🙃

If there's no economic shock building why do we have biggest increases in employee layoffs?

Central Banks will break the economy with too high interest rates. They aint doing policy reasonably, like they didn't when they introduced helicopter money in 2020. They keep ignoring live data.

This data is only for Tech companies.

The mega corporations are doing biggest layoffs in years and most people think bull run is around corner?🔴

Corporations are announcing worst earnings reports in decades and retail thinks bull run is around corner?🔴

UPDATE:

Since last time of our rebalance and selling of our assets, markets have rallied +25%

As much as i hate to see these gains go away, fundamental dangers are still in place.

What we've predicted was crypto titan Genesis going bankrupt. With announcement of bankcuptcy crypto rallied. Illogical.

Grayscale, Genesis & Gemini case is much bigger case than FTX.

Digital Currency Group is a crypto titan that owns subsidiary Genesis.

Most altcoins have rallied, because Bitcoin pulled them up, but they are losing value against BTC, if Bitcoin corrects, we're expecting massacre.

MACRO OUTLOOK:

Consumer debt is at all time high 🔴

Interest rates are at multi year high 🔴

Personal savings rate is at multi decade lows 🔴

Corporations continue with massive layoffs 🔴

Real estate volumes have plunged the most in decades 🔴

Central Banks continue to raise interest rates to new highs 🔴

Earning reports for most corps for 2022 are realy bad 🔴

We're seeing many fundamental red flags, which causes us to be carefull.

We remain extremely bullish on crypto but there are still fundamental issues here that haven't went away. Ignoring them would be irresponsible.

The only good part about current crypto prices are, they're still cheap. But correlation with TradFi like SP500 is still here. If TradFi breaks, crypto breaks much more.

We'll wait to see more earnings report releases from massive corporations to determine the next way to go with crypto.

We have decided to sell all our positions because Genesis and DCG pose huge threat to crypto liquidity and volatility.

If you are not aware what is Grayscale, Genesis & DCG you should read up on it. It's a huge mess and SEC is investigating DCG, which owns Genesis. ICONOMI Post sections are to short to be able to explain entire case in just few words.

Genesis has recently fired 30% of it's work force and it's tensions with Gemini exchange continue to heat up. This has been a red flag that something big in negative way is comming for this institutional titan.

If Genesis falls this will be much bigger liquidity loss than FTX.

DCG is a crypto titan on institutional level and Genesis is owned by DCG.

DCG owns Grayscale and Grayscale has it's own issues aswell.

Like we said many times these liquidity issues have arisen due to greedy and overeleveraged institutions. Things will get better. No issues have arisen on protocol level on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cosmos etc...

The technology will stay and the protocols that survive this shitstorm will be even stronger and bigger next bull run.

Our job is now to survive this institutional capitulation and deleveraging event.

Macro picture looks bad as well, earnings are in downfall, revenue streams are expected to be quite bad compared to previous quarters.

What's our plan for this year?

I'm expecting stock market to correct even more this year.

Central banks are over tightening monetary policy, like they did in pandemic times they overexpanded money supply. This will backfire with recession if they don't stop.

We plan to re-enter crypto position after DCG, GENESIS & GEMINI case is resolved.

After we buy in, we'll continue to Dollar Cost Average in every single month.

Crypto has had a reset but remember after rain there's always sun 😉

The bull run will be back because technology is revolutionary and next bull run will be led by usable, problem solving protocols.

We've survived 2018/19 and we'll survive 2022/23 and get back stronger ✅

Portfolio rebalance summary:

We have decided to enter some of our favurite projects but will keep around 28% in stable coins.

We have re-entered positions because fundamentals of some projects blow my mind what kind of valuations we're seeing.

But on the other hand we still have dominos falling from centralised incompetent or malicious actors. Nobody knows how long will this deleveraging event go.

But it blows my mind how biggest insitutions are trying to portray cryptocurrencies as scam, ponzi or bubble, when the problems that happened did not happen on protocol level but due to centralised entities and few bad actors in power.

I'll say 1 thing:

FU*K ECB & all the banksters🖕

They're trying to use this downfall in crypto to portay CBDC's as the best solution.

CBDC's have technically mostly bad properties which will not benefit average Joe's. The future will be based on decentralised protocols and Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAO's).

Centralisation always leads to power manipulation & greed.

Onwards! Crypto marathon continues!

BREAKING NEWS:

a) Credit card debt in the U.S. hits all-time high of $930 billion 🔥

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/credit-card-debt-returns-to-levels-before-covid-19-pandemic-11666928540

b) US Stocks drop in double digits after earning reports come in 🔥

Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-set-rise-us-224330376.html

Amazon -20% 📉

Meta -20% 📉

Microsoft - 8% 📉

Google -9% 📉

Summary: Something devastating is brewing in traditional markets. We're afraid that incompetent Central Banks will cause liquidity crisis. We've got worst earning reports from mega corps in years, credit card debt is at all time high, inflation is in multi decade high and we've got Central banks focusing on continuation of interest rate hikes --> Right now the fastest interest rate hikes ever experianced in modern economy.

We think that all we've mentioned is a perfect formula for devastating result on traditional economy. Risk assets like crypto will follow the trend, but we believe $BTC and few other crypto's will rebound the fastest.

Incompetent Central banks will enlighten average people why money needs to be decentralised. The main component of economy shouldn't be controled by just few people, because people are corruptible beeings. Code can't be corrupted.

Crypto will come out stronger after liquidity crisis.

BREAKING: Worlds largest Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific's Shares Plummet -70% After Bankruptcy Warning

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/27/core-scientific-to-suspend-payments-as-cash-dwindles/

Bitcoin's Hash Rate is also at all time highs while price is at multi year lows. This means that $BTC miners are earning the smallest reward relative to hashpower applied in history, and likely puts the industry under extreme income stress.

We're afraid that this might create more miner capitulation pressure and $BTC might make new lows. If this will be the reality this last capitulation might be the best long term buy possible and we're looking forward to buy into new lows.

Decided to rebalance entire portfolio and go full "HEDGE MODE". Why? 👇

Six reasons:

a) Chinese and Hong Kong stocks had a massacre yesterday, reaching multi year lows. Asian stocks plumeted from -10% to -30% in single day

b) Winter is comming with delay to Europe and energy crisis hasn't even started escalating

c) China - Taiwan tensions are escalating and USA wants Taiwan to start producing USA weapons there so they can defend themselves... seems like Russia - Ukraine scenario

d) Crypto had a short squeeze today and we've seen more than 500M$ of liquidations in just $BTC

e) Q3 earnings reports are comming in for USA corporations and already few of them are showing signs of revenue slowdown, announcement of employee layoffs

f) Continuation of interest rate hikes from CB. Destruction of liquidity and creation of new debt crisis

While I remain super bullish mid and long term for crypto, there are some scary macro things going on in the short term. This is also the reason we've built out a position in $PAXG, which is a fully audited gold asset backed coin. Beeing exposed to our strategy exposes you also to GOLD.

It's super hard to navigate these volatile times.

Technical analysis is giving us "buy signals", but macro analysis is giving us deep fears.

Due to uncertainity we've decided to protect the portfolio.

We'll continue to monitor market behaviour and act accordingly ✅