BluecodeTrading

Trading the chop for the next few months.... A clearer picture of market structure is emerging longer term, and that will be supportive for digital assets. Riding through patches of volatility is the order of play for Q2, then starting to build long term positions with supportive fundamentals for Q3 and beyond.

The blows in the real economy are coming, TradFi banking sector facing multitude of issues and these are predominantly rates driven. We're expecting a serious softening of tone from central banks, and that increases the odds of a full pivot.

Tech and crypto should fair better if this scenario plays out, we're tactically getting in and out, but the case for a structural long position is rising.

What a difference a banking default makes...

Market pricing of year end rates with a significant shift lower today relative to Friday. Could this be the start of a moderating FED position? Perhaps. Though they will do everything they can to maintain rates at this level.

USDC caught in the SVB cross fire, we switch to USDT over the weekend as cash holding being the least worst option.

Some risk asset relief in crypto, but not enough for a sustained move higher.

The micro headwinds pile up for crypto.

Policy news is bad, bank blow ups, potential regulation etc. Headlines fade as quickly as they come in crypto. Dont get lost in the details, there is a wider perspective here: crypto will not start a sustained rise until the broader risk asset complex steadies.

S&P 500 has now broken its 200 day MA and needs to find support somewhere in the next 10% move down.

💰is🤴

The headline US economic data continues to upside surprise 🤗

This means, more room to push rates AND/OR longer term holding rates elevated. 😬

Crypto traders hoping on a FED pivot best take up a new hobby 🎨 in the interim because this market is about the chop 🔪 and grind 🐌

We sit in 💰 and trade only tactically.