Ragnarok Crypto

Update on current situation:

As you may see we are fully tethered since around 3100$ per ETH. We do not like current situation, many people are trying to look at fundamentals, on chain transactions and various fiat ban scenarious - canada, russia. All of that can help crypto in the future in the long term.

However for now, crypto and especially bitcoin leading it is kind of instituonalized and these guys take it as another risky asset, thats why it will have correlation with stock indexes on the shorter timeframes especially. 

Russia and Fed are both risks for investors and mood on the markets is currently not good. Thats the reason we decided to move completely out of the markets and will re- enter only once the situations deescalate or will be fully priced in (hitting strong longterm supports)

It may take few weeks or even months, we really do not know not.

Here we come with Q4 2021 UPDATE

Here we come with Q3 update:

You can find it here.

Do not like the triangle on BTC.

Will wait it out in Tether.

Going 100 % into markets.

Stop loss set at previous low - 39.5k per BTC

We have hit first strong supports, so it is time to buy some crypto.

But will set SL in case we would be going more down.

Around 40 % invested now, the rest in USDT and Gold.

To explain the situation now:

We were 50 % Tethered before this dump as we were unsure which directions the market will go.

Now we see that markets are going down and we think it will continue to do so for some time.

The current situation means significant risks for our copiers so we are moving out 100 % into USDT.

Will accumulate lower on BTC support levels.

China problems -> S&P500 lost momentum. Crypto is strongly correlated with major US indexes when they are going down. So better be safe now.

We have catched the correction and are back 100 % invested.

With the new rules to move out of the markets in case the situation gets worse.

We believe it time to hedge 40 % into trusted stablecoins USDC and TUSD, will rebuy positions lower if it goes there. Do not believe in immediate continuation of uptrend.

There are 2 scenarios currently in play in our opinion.

1st - preferred and bullish option (we give this 60 % chance) - 2013 repeat, that would mean sideways action till october and then new parabolic move with 1,2 or 3 bear traps on its way(1st one would be retest of 40k or similar for BTC and around 2500-2000$ per ETH). As there were basically no alts back then we do not know how they will perform. But we suppose in scenario where BTC is going sideways 35-50k range till october, altcoins will perform same or better than BTC.

2nd - not preferred but possible (40% chance) huge triangle formation same as 2018 and then dump below 30k $ for btc which would drew down altcoins as well.

The problem with both scenarios, as always, is that nobody knows which one it is untileverything is over.

That is why we hedge now and will wait most probably till mid autumn to invest these money.

Here we come with Q2 Update.

https://rcaa.medium.com/q2-2021-ragnarok-crypto-sumup-8d4b1004fea1