An uptrend is taking shape in crypto again. It comes against the backdrop of weaking currencies, a more constructive macroeconomic environment and a growing drumbeat of progress in digital asset adoption. A brief breakdown:
The inflation rally seems to have topped out, likely the result of expectations that the central banks reverse course by mid-2023. It would take some fairly shocking inflation prints to force rates and the USD out of its current inflection state and back into what we've seen in the first half of 2022.
The sources of disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reached a state of choppy equillibirum. In the absence of new geopolitical developments, a reduction in volatility should result in stabelizing markets and higher asset prices.
US politics are likely to shift as well. In the event that Republicans manage to take back control of government, it would seem probable that they will reinstate lower taxes, higher stimulus and easier legislations.
Lastly, without much fanfare, crypto is racking up adoption milestones that would've fueled spectacular rallies in the 2021 crypto markets. Elon/Twitter is posting headlines and crypto seems to be viewed as a more positive force of technological innovation by the more traditional institutions.
With all of this going on, prices are essentially unchanged since mid-summer and do not yet reflect the shifting macroeconomic, political and micro/fundamental winds. Strong adoption narratives can lead to parabolic rallies, we've learned from the past. I will be putting more energy in trading the markets now that depression has hit its peak and disbelief will dominate the news.