Pigster Crypto

Leaving the markets with immediate effect. Yesterday we broke a key BTC level and May might offer us new retracements, on which we want to be sidelined. We made some really nice profit after the last retracement and don't want to be shaken off when things start to get ugly.

Quick update: After the rally after the local lows, we are seeing a slight cool-off, which is really nothing unexpected.

Coinbase Premium was negative almost the whole of Tuesday, which translated into a negative ETF flow day (-$15m).

The Crypto Weekly RSI Heatmap sees levels scattered all over the place which makes sense in this current range. Some coins doing much better than others which is translated into this mess of a chart below.Average Weekly RSI still at ~50 which is as neutral as you can get.

Also, there is a lot of doubt Ether ETFs are going to get approved shortly (the first final deadlines are on May 23rd). Grayscale has withdrawn its Ether futures ETF application and has stirred market uncertainty, particularly among short-term traders who have increased their positions anticipating a downtrend.

Many have already anticipated that ETH ETSs won't get approved in May, but as always there will most likely be price manipulation after the likely rejection in the cards. Be aware that May has in the previous three years been a negative year for BTC price:

• 2021 (-35.31%)
• 2022 (-15.6%)
• 2023 (-6.98%)

Because of that the saying: "sell in May" has formed, and many in the crypto space stick to it, it is also the last month of the highly anticipated crypto summer. So May will probably be "one hell of a ride". As always, stick to your plan.

Let's break down the shifts in sentiment, fear, uncertainty, and the lure of quick profits in the crypto market. Just a quick thought after the recent market movements before and after the halving.

The fear and greed indicator doesn't tell us much about trends and price action, but it somewhat well shows a quick change in the market's sentiment. Just three days ago, fear was dominant, at 43 index points, $BTC dropped to $57k. Today, it's greed, at 71 index points, that's 28 index points for you. Remember when we hit all-time highs? People claimed, "This time it's different," citing ETFs as the new big thing that will turn around the whole market and kill traditional TA assumptions. But it wasn't.

Recently, we hit new local lows in BTC trading. Many expected this and many indicators very told us the market is short-term bottoming. Again, people panicked, there was FUD everywhere, predicting further drops, even to low $16k for $BTC saying: "This time it's different". But, as usual, it wasn't different.

So, what's the lesson and what can we learn from this part of a cycle that historically should be bullish? Crypto history doesn't repeat exactly the same, but it usually rhymes. Fundamentals stay consistent over time, and TA is still a very important factor when monitoring the market. Sentiment shifts like the wind, so don't get shaken off too easily. Stick to your plan, ignore fear (FUD), and resist the urge to chase quick gains (FOMO). Stay true to yourself and your strategy and you will be just fine.

And one thing, don't sell at a loss.

AI sector pumping 🔥

Before the drop, I was looking a Puell Multiple, about which I have already posted about a few months ago.

For clarification, puell multiple is a metric defined as the ratio of the daily value of the issued BTC, devided by 365 moving average of the daily value of issued BTC.

The Puell mutliple dropped from 2.63 to 0.65 after the halving. The value of Puell multiple with BTC at 63k is at the similar level as when BTC was 22k. The longterm outlook of this is bullish.