Alpha Digital

Looking at $BTC I do not have a strong opinion right now.

I am definitely seeing a change of character though with price no longer trending (upwards).

It is also noteworthy, that bounces are weak and sell offs are comparatively strong.

At the same time we have retested the 60k area multiple times now. As with resistance, supports become weaker the more often they are traded at.

So my general feeling is that risk is skewed to the downside.

Another reason to stay flat for now and let some time pass by until the uncertainty subsides.

This time around I'll be mostly focusing on Ethereum as a representative for altcoins in general.

After we avoided the brutal drop things were looking good for a moment.

$ETH tested support and bounced back strongly.

This was my trigger to entry and indeed we saw further upside.

Next $ETH tested resistance and could not break through it. This was not surprising since we had seen a 20% bounce from the lows by then.

Subsequently Ethereum did not manage to hold a crucial area confirming general weakness.

This was my trigger to exit again.

This is also the reason why I won't be allocating as long as we stay in this area.

Price action is weak and in my opinion any buy would simply be based on hopium especially as long as we are trading below every 4 hour EMA.

As usual these are only my thoughts and should not be considered investment advise.

I'm mainly looking at $BTC right now.

We broke the ascending triangle to the downside and retested it from below. As long as this is the case, things are not looking bright.

The daily 50EMA is holding for now, and we are still in a higher low structure, so I'm not ruling out a continued uptrend.

Still, a retest of the range low is the likeliest scenario, in my opinion.

This would mean -10% on Bitcoin and potentially a lot more drawdown on altcoins. Yesterday, $BTC lost around 5%, while alts crumbled and many dropped by a whopping 20%.

I am not going to risk it until this situation clears out and the path becomes clearer.

Derisked just in time it seems.

Today wasn't great but it could've been a lot worse.

Last but not least $RUNE.

This is a really interesting one.

Highly volatile and should in theory benefit from high $BTC volumes immensely as it is a crosschain decentralized exchange.

Because of the high volatility it makes up only a small part of the strategy but it can still have considerable impact of the performance.

It is sitting on support, having completed 3 retests of the same support area this one too looks like it bottomed out.

If it falls below the 7$ mark I will scale down exposure.