BluecodeTrading

The blows in the real economy are coming, TradFi banking sector facing multitude of issues and these are predominantly rates driven. We're expecting a serious softening of tone from central banks, and that increases the odds of a full pivot.

Tech and crypto should fair better if this scenario plays out, we're tactically getting in and out, but the case for a structural long position is rising.

What a difference a banking default makes...

Market pricing of year end rates with a significant shift lower today relative to Friday. Could this be the start of a moderating FED position? Perhaps. Though they will do everything they can to maintain rates at this level.

USDC caught in the SVB cross fire, we switch to USDT over the weekend as cash holding being the least worst option.

Some risk asset relief in crypto, but not enough for a sustained move higher.

The micro headwinds pile up for crypto.

Policy news is bad, bank blow ups, potential regulation etc. Headlines fade as quickly as they come in crypto. Dont get lost in the details, there is a wider perspective here: crypto will not start a sustained rise until the broader risk asset complex steadies.

S&P 500 has now broken its 200 day MA and needs to find support somewhere in the next 10% move down.

💰is🤴

The headline US economic data continues to upside surprise 🤗

This means, more room to push rates AND/OR longer term holding rates elevated. 😬

Crypto traders hoping on a FED pivot best take up a new hobby 🎨 in the interim because this market is about the chop 🔪 and grind 🐌

We sit in 💰 and trade only tactically.

😬 S&P500 getting real close to that 200 day moving average and there's a lot of market participants watching. Compound that with the move higher in rates = nothing but downside volatility short term.

Not supportive for crypto. 🚑

Cash is 👑

The recession that never was? Yes the housing sector is under pressure, but the rest of the economy is holding up. Good news is bad news. Rates will remain elevated for longer, no dramatic pivot, no quick return of cheap money.

Welcome to the grind. This scenario will remain a drag on tech stocks and crypto. After the bounce YTD, proceed with caution. 🐌

12 month returns - No.3 on the whole platform 🥰

🥳Strategy live for 1 year

🚀no.7 on Iconomi over 12 months

🥰Fund is +20% over 12 months in a bear market

🎯Outperformed BTC by 65%

👉Macro positioning, fundamentals asset selection 👈

Here's to the year ahead

2 ways the Fed funds rate is not at 5.25% by year end:

📉 - Bad news: US economy rolls over, unemployment starts to rise

📈 - Good news: "Immaculate disinflation" some how prices coming down with the economy above trend.

Vincent Reinhart on the money here 🎯

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUKPB79Zk0M

Lots of analysis asking where this recession is? Global economy is definitely showing more resilience than expected. That means one thing; the Fed can keep pushing on rates. The temptation should drive the FOMC to the point of being overly restrictive. Unfortunately looking at the current resilient data is driving while looking in the rear view mirror.