Web3 Foundation

Not posting much.

China GDP growth slowing, FED hikes, housing recession, energy crisis, UK PM,..

BTC situation reminds a lot of 2018, 6000 floor. Bounces getting weaker and weaker.

Nobody has a clue about next move.

It looks like there are no safe assets left.

For decades simply owning assets generated nice returns. Probably everything will change. Active asset management will be crucial. There are just to many macro shocks in motion.

Staying in USDC for now.

$BTC update.

People are entering, but the price is not growing. We see that in open interest rising again, the price is declining, and funding is not yet negative enough.

Right now, the 50 million to Tether treasury we wrote is in play.

To keep inflation under control, the Fed must take several actions. Simultaneously, so that there isn't a complete collapse of all markets, resulting in deflation. Another issue is that inflation normally declines 18 to 2 years after measures are implemented. 

Patience has certainly paid off for now. With BTC's behaviour, ALTs setups are risky. According to the Fear & Greed index, markets are experiencing "severe fear." Many people are turning to stable coins as a result. Today's daily stable coin transfer volume reached $57 billion.

$BTC update.

Another 50 million. So there'll be more chopping and pulling back.

Many ALTs are trading near solid support, but a greater decline is probable below this level. It is preferable to lose a small amount of money than to lose a significant sum of money.

It says a lot that BTC only bounced to 48k area.

Closed some positions.

$BTC update.

There is just too much scare tactics, we have negative funding. This could be 30k moment in July, followed by the 40k moment in September. 

Because we know the potential is much, much larger, we risked another 10% of USDC by DCA entering in BTC yesterday. With financing negative across the board, retail is selling into the lows ahead of the FOMC meeting.

It is hard to believe they'll change the conditions at central banks overnight. The entire financial system is on the verge of collapse, and they'll drag as long as they can. 

Bids are being placed on Bitfinex. Perhaps for the purpose of purchasing the news.

(Picture credit: Zen)

At the very least, the fact that we will most likely find out which market we are in on Wednesday is a plus.

$BTC update.

Not bullish right now.

Another 50M to tether treasury.

They appear to want to take the price down to at least 0.786 Fibb levels, which would be around 46.2k.

Update on $BTC that is little bearish.

We're now taking a step back and putting 47k to the test in the high-volume support area looking at TA.

We've been in a bear market for a long time, probably.

Only 35% of Nasdaq members are above the 200-day moving average, putting the stock just 2.6 percent away from all-time highs. For the past year, stocks have been realistically dumped, particularly in China and all but the top few stocks. 

In crypto isolated segments of the market are being completely demolished. For example, DEFI has a large number of single names that are down more than 70%.

What if we are looking at the exit pump market over the previous six months?

Cleaning is already taking place, although it is not readily apparent due to the large amount of liquidity and the printing of money. 

On chain data, the picture is still good. Long-term investors are still accumulating at a high level, but demand has decreased slightly. BTC is still being actively removed from exchanges, as evidenced by the blockchain. Another encouraging clue is that we're seeing some of the highest flows since August, just around the time when people began to arrive in large numbers. 

Important week.

Powell on Wednesday, if BTC fails here, the RSI will break on a daily basis, and the MACD will fail, resulting in further drawdowns for alts that have already broken out of trend. 

At the very least, decisions will be made this week.

$BTC update.

Right now, the market is really jittery. We'd have a 10-15% profit on yesterday's holdings by now in a normal bull market, but ALTs are being dumped with every BTC move. As a result, the majority of positions were closed yesterday, and we are now waiting.

However, a number of indications are strengthening, including OTC supply, whale CVD, and so on.

Touch the top of the channel once more. We've hit resistance, and we'd like to see 50.3k turn support. However, there will almost certainly be more FUD news to come in next days...

$BTC update.

There isn't much change in this choppy zone.

The FED meeting on the 15th is probably the most important event that will aid in the search for the bottom.

Most stock exchanges and hedge funds lock their doors from 17.12 - 18.1, therefore selling pressure is likely to last until 17.12.

BTC.D, on the other hand, bounced remarkably close to the line, leaving just the question of direction. We'd like to see financing go negative in the next weeks. In the short term, a rise above 49.5k could pave the way for better things, but for now, we'll have to wait and watch.

$BTC and market update 2/2.

Other market segments.

The unemployment rate is one of the best leading indicators of a cyclical downturn. When the unemployment rate approaches 3% and then rises, a recession is on the way. 

The yield curve is another useful indication. The curve was virtually inverted by the close of 2019, implying that a recession would start sometime in 2020.

The FED infused money to stimulate the economy as a result of COVID, but opted to limit monthly purchases at its most recent meeting. As a result, inflationary pressures may persist for some time before the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates.

Simply put, the recession was postponed.

$BTC and market update 1/2.

This is the ideal moment to look at the market and think rationally about it, free of Twitter FUD about new ATHs and other such nonsense.

At this point, you can see that technical analysis, no matter how good a project is, is irrelevant.

Big players will profit or pump if they wish to. 

Levels: 46 – 46.7/43.8 – 44.1/41.5 – 42 

We're starting to get some bids in. Is this some sort of bottom?

The liquidations starts at roughly 47k.

Photo Credit: Material Scientist