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Feb 25, 2024
Mar 3, 2024

About this Strategy

About this Strategy

Actively managed strategy following fundamentally solid projects. Trading is done through research, technical analysis, market sentiment and long term vision.

Performance & Risk

Performance & Risk
Annualised Return
Max. Drawdown
-85.34 %
+16.38 %
+2.21 %



See structure

Structure changes

Structure changes

Last structure change
Feb 29, 2024, 7:53:01 PM
Number of structure change in the last 30 days


Good evening everyone,

For this weeks update we'll be looking at what we expect the market to do and provide some insight.

Firstly the GBTC sell pressure seems to be easing which will give us a true chance to take advantage of the extra ETF inflows. This will, in our opinion, make for a positive price development. BTC between the $48-50k mark seems to be in play.

Looking at factors negatively influencing the price are miner outflows. Looks like they are keen on securing some profit leading up to the halvening. We do see that the ETF inflows for now are cancelling them out giving the market an overall positive development.

All in all the market is looking to rebound form the losses over the last two weeks. Coinbase Premium is showing positive signs signifying buy pressure form the US, whereas it was deeply negative last week.

We are going to maintain our exposure in the market and have even added a little from out BTC position to our altcoins holdings since we believe they will outperform BTC in the near future.

Looking ahead towards the halvening the game plan is to increase BTC percentage leading up to it. Historically the market had declined right after the halvening only to become profitable again a few months later. Knowing this there will be a good opportunity to buy back some altcoins at a discount and increase profitability in the medium term (6-12 months).

Also worth a watch in regards to market development is the weekly Glassnode update. You can find their latest video here if you are interested in some more in depth analysis.

For now have a good evening and till next week!


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A little more explanation about why people are selling GBTC for actual spot ETF BTC.

Last two year, there was a huge discount if you invested in the GBTC fund (almost up to 50% discount!). You can see from the chart below that discount has closed fast due to the ETF approval. It makes sense that these investors are cashing their rewards and want to jump onto the ETF bandwagon and not be stuck paying fees to Grayscale and having the issue of additional price swings in the GBTC fund.

With a spot ETF the price is correlated directly, with GBTC in addition to the BTC fluctuations you also have to deal with the demand for the GBTC product. In other words, with the ETF approval there is less cost and additional risk involved.

Estimates by Bloomberg were that about 3 Billion worth of BTC was bought with this discount. Since they now have a substantial profit and the discount gap has pretty much closed it makes sense for them to exit their positions and invest directly into an BTC ETF.

A little more patience for these parties to rearrange their positions and we will be on our way up again.


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Good morning all,

Talking about a bad start of the week is an understatement. Looking at the past weeks performance we can say it is far from ideal. Luckily there is a reason for all of this and we can explain why we are still in the market.

Another $600+ million of GBTC has been sold, like last week, this is the main reason for the sell pressure. Good news is that after last week roughly $1.5 billion still remained and after the sell-off yesterday this number is down to roughly $900 million. How much of this number is still to be sold remains to be seen, but from the $3 billion where we came from this is sell pressure which is running out fast. By the end of the week we could be there after which a good bounce is to be expected.

Following this idea, the true effect of the ETF shall become apparent in the weeks/months after. Why did we not trade this move? Simply put, it is short term pain for long term gain. We wrote a few months back that the ETF will bring new dynamic to the market and it is hard to predict what it will do in terms of price movement. We were leaning towards a more positive outcome, but our view for this year remains unchanged. We firmly believe that looking back in a few months we will be able to validate our strategy.

So what do to do now? This week is one to sit and wait. Until the substantial sell pressure has subsided there is not reason to make good predictions. If you did manage to secure some profit with the strategy as indicated in the pinned message on our storyline, this is a good time to return some into the market.

Weeks like this are never fun to look at, this is the reminder that crypto is a very volatile and fast market. Big moves up and big moves down. Don't let emotions take control and make hasty decisions. Stick to the plan and you will be rewarded.

Have a good week and till the next update.


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As you may be aware, the market is having a pretty tough time since the ETF approval. Again a lot of selling pressure is coming from the US, most likely driven by GBTC sales. Whilst this may be hard to see on your portfolio now, don't forget our profit margin so far is 172% over the last 3 months. A good pullback is needed. As we indicated in a previous post, we believe this to be part of the new players entering the market. Everyone want to get BTC as cheap as possible. If you have a tool to do so (GBTC selling), it will be used. Again the word volatility comes to mind, large swings in both directions were expected and are happening.

If you managed to set up the automated profit taking strategy, these are good moments to think about re-entering some of those funds back into the market. Especially altcoins are not enjoying the BTC pullbacks, which makes for a good opportunity.

As always, we are keeping an eye on the market and for now are deciding to stay in our positions.

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Good evening everyone,

Here is the weekly update on what we expect for the coming week and how our last week played out.

A historic moment has occurred with the spot ETF approval. The much anticipated approval finally came through. In the day leading up BTC showed a lot of growth and, unfortunately, the aftermath is looking to be a "sell the news" scenario. However we do believe this is of a short term. The initial sell pressure from Grayscale's GBTC has subsided and going into this week we see the ETF inflows more as a boost for BTC.

As mentioned in previous posts, it is hard to say when the altcoins will start rallying again. It looks like a lot of people are waiting and watching to see what BTC is going to do before moving altcoins. So more patience is needed on this aspect.

In about 93 days the BTC halving will occur. Traditionally, the period after is not great but a few months after scarcity factor starts making its dent and BTC gains in price. The lead up to the halving could again be a catalyst for a price rally with a potential drop afterwards.

For now, we are staying in the market with our strategy and will make sure the balance between BTC and other altcoins is maintained. Some consolidation here would be nice for a sustainable price in the midterm (30-60 days).

Have a good night and till the next update! 🙂

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