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In bull markets, corrections are a natural and healthy part of the process. They provide opportunities to compound on your winners and build a stronger base for the next leg up.
That said, avoid over-leveraging at any stage. Be particularly cautious when attempting to catch falling knives during these dips—patience and proper risk management are key to riding the trend successfully. Stay focused and disciplined!
Bitcoin High Timeframe Trend Update
Bitcoin typically doesn’t revisit its Daily 200MA/EMA after breaking its previous cycle highs.
• 2020: Broke and trended up for over a year without a retest.
• 2017: Even stronger, avoiding a retest for ~1.5 years.
Currently, the 200MA/EMA sits around $70K, well below the price. It’s likely these levels won’t be tested until much higher prices are reached.
If broken, it would indicate a weakening of the high timeframe trend and warrant caution. However, for now, the trend remains solidly bullish.
ETH Key Level Retest
Ethereum is retesting the crucial weekly level around 0.04 ETH/BTC, a pivotal area for reversing the daily timeframe downtrend. Breaking above this level would be a strong bullish signal for ETH.
Historically, a rising ETH/BTC ratio correlates with stronger performance in the broader altcoin market, as seen over the past 2–3 weeks. This level is worth closely watching for signs of a breakout and its potential impact on altcoins.
Bitcoin Q4 Performance Update
Bitcoin’s Q4 is shaping up well so far, aligning with last year and historical post-halving year trends. Looking back at the two previous post-halving years:
• 2017: Slow Q1 but an explosive Q2, finishing the year strongly.
• 2021: A strong Q1 followed by a slower Q2, but still closed the year heavily green.
While the patterns differ, both years highlight Bitcoin’s ability to rally significantly in post-halving cycles. If history is any indication, the current Q4 momentum could lead to another strong finish for $BTC.
Yesterday saw close to $4B in Open Interest wiped out from the market. This was on $BTC alone.
$ETH saw close to $1.5B wiped out but held better in the end.
These kind of flushes are pretty normal in a bull market and will happen more often.
It's the only way we keep going.
